SCENARIOS for 2006
DRAFT #1
October 3, 2001
WAIT & SEE
Overview
Key Marketing and Media Companies Choose to Pursue "Business as Usual," Doing Only the Minimum with Regard to Convergent Television Programming, Until A Compelling Reason to Do Otherwise Becomes Obvious.
In the wake of the Internet Bubble's Collapse, the 2001 Terrorist Attack on the World Trade Center and a lingering Economic Recession/Depression, Marketers and Media Companies Returned to Basics. They focused on managing the status quo, cutting costs and streamlining their organizations to maintain and/or improve their bottom line. Activities centered on new media, new product and programming development and long-term investments were minimized. Convergent Programming Activity happened only around proven winners with low price tags and risks attached. This mindset supported reality shows, games, sports & news programming; yet, even in these genres, the real opportunities for marketers and programmers were missed, because little effort and expense was put against developing and exploiting potential programming and marketing communications opportunities. Contrary to the TV Programming Evolution occurring between the 1950s and 2000, Convergent TV stagnated with the low-cost trial formats of its infancy. Enhancements built for TV Programming were not compelling and marketing communications efforts to integrate across platforms were cursory at best.
SHOW ME
Overview
Key Marketing Companies have a "Prove It" Mentality toward Convergent Television Programming - They Demand Significant and Tangible Evidence that the Emerging Media is a Worthwhile Investment and Pursue Limited Activities Based on ROI Analysis.
Burnt by the '90s Internet Heyday, Marketers and Media Co.s took an overly cautious approach to convergent media opportunities. Marketers didn't want to repeat the Past Decade's Investment Blunders. They faced not only a Souring Economy, but also the Overarching Global Uncertainties Precipitated by the 2001 Terrorist Attack on the World Trade Center. These factors overshadowed Marketers' decision-making with regard to convergent television programming - in essence, anything "new" and evolving that required risk, an experimental mindset and dollar expenditures not attached to revenue, was pursued cautiously. Clients were consumed with Competitive Analysis and "0"-Base Thinking.
Progress in Convergent Television Programming & Advertising occurred only when Companies could point to specific and quantifiable results. Marketers were willing to participate in some activity, but it was a tough sell. Many Convergent Technologies Companies went under in the wake of this "over-rationalization" environment; however, for those with Solid Case Studies and Statistical Research Behind Their Applications and TV Properties, (and sometimes with the aid of free Trial Offers & Money Back Guarantees), Co.s were able to Make Limited Progress Developing and Distributing Convergent Technology Programming.
FOLLOW ME
Overview
Key Marketing and Media Companies Lead the Way in Defining the Communications Possibilities and Values of Convergent Television Programming.
Recognizing that Consumers were Creating and Adopting a New Interactive TV Medium in Advance of its Full-Scale Technological Deployment, Strong Leaders -- Co.s Like Ford and ABC/Disney -- Began Creating New Types of Programming which combined the media experiences of TV and the Internet. Empowered Consumers were Creating their Own Channels, Regularly Multi-tasking and Interacting with Programming; yet, Ratings were still eroding and TV Revenue Models were failing -- a Seismic Shift in Programming Content, Uses and Production Methods was necessary. Leading Co.s in these Industries formed Consortiums and Alliances to Develop Standards, Define the New Convergent ITV Medium, Create Best Practices and Pioneer Killer Apps. They Worked Collaboratively from the Onset to more Closely Integrate Marketing Messages with Programming Content. This helped to Reduce Risks associated with Spec Program Development and improved the Adversarial TV Production/Sales/Distribution Model Prevalent in the Latter Half of the 20" Century.
Convergent Programming Experiments of the late 90's and early years of the 21' century convinced Large Media Conglomerates that enhanced TV was the best defense against diminishing ratings and falling revenues. Marketers as well, found interactive television a strong medium with which to engage Consumers in deeper and more meaningful ways. In fact, Media Companies and Marketers, faced with the economic challenges brought by Audience Fragmentation and Diminishing Ratings began to collaborate more tightly in creating Television/Internet Programming. Championed by key industry leaders, this approach reduced the risk of producing programming on spec and supported the Marketer's efforts to speak to their target Consumers in "the right place, at the right time, with the right message."
Implications of the Reconfigured TV Model rippled across Industry Organizations. A Blurring of Lines Occurred Between Networks (Distribution), Media Production and Marketing Communications Companies. Sometimes, this meant that Media Companies Created Programming and Built MarCom Opportunities into the TV Program and its Interactive Components. Sometimes, these collaborations took the form of "old-school" partnerships...a al The Runner : an ABC, Pepsi/Chrysler/Live Planet Property. In other instances, Marketers became Virtual Networks of their Own - Paying to Produce, Promote and Distribute Programming tightly aligned with their Brand Objectives. The "Upfront" Cycle became less about choosing programs owned by "The Networks" and more Akin to Bidding for Time Shares in the Hundreds of Digital Broadband Channels Available.
Convergent TV was an efficient and multi-tiered means of speaking to Consumers in the context of their lives. Over 65% of Households had Internet Access in 2006. Broadband penetration represented 45% of these HHs and were an extremely desirable audience for marketers.
Me TV
Overview
Consumer Uptake of Convergent Programming and Related Technologies Drives its Evolution. Media and Marketing Companies Respond to Consumer Usage of 2- & 1-Screen Platforms and a New Consumer Who Demands Interactivity.
Even as AT&T Postponed Deployment of the DCT-5000 Set-Top Box in 2001, Consumers Had Already Begun Adopting Convergent Media. An interesting trend grabbed the attention of Marketers and Media Companies - More Than Half (?) of PC Households in that Year had a Computer and TV Sets in the Same Room AND Increasing Numbers of People Were Using Both at the Same Time...often to Interact Online with Content Related to the TV Show They Were Watching. Essentially, Consumers were enhancing their own TV shows in advance of set-top boxes and the bandwidth enabling this over the tv set. Early Experiments in Developing Convergent TV Programming and Advertising focused on Genres with the Most Obvious ITV Needs -News Programming, Sports, Game Shows, Music, etc. Certain Subjects and Related Products within these Categories Dominated these Experiments - HealthCare, Automobiles, Financial Services/Products, etc. Between 2001 and 2006, "CTV" Programming (as well as Methods of Selecting It) became More Intriguing and Sophisticated. Agents Tracked One's Interests and Made Programming& Product Recommendations. Personal Databases, Managed by Agents, became an increasingly significant contact interface through which Marketers Negotiated and Interacted with Consumers. Consumers, in turn, managed relationships with Marketers more frequently via Agents -screening out irritating "junk mail" and directing searches on products that serviced their needs.
The Biggest Paradigm shift in the Convergent Programming Landscape Occurred on the Entertainment Side of the TV Spectrum. Since the 1970's, the Television Industry had followed a progressive path of declining ratings and profits even as the medium developed technologically and economically. Convergent Programming provided a "light at the end of the tunnel" - a way to engage & retain increasing numbers of channel flippers (and TIVO-devotees) as they created new revenue. Marketers enjoyed an opportunity to speak to self-selected audiences in greater depth, move directly from communication to transaction and advance the brand relationship in a highly accountable medium.
Peer-to-Peer Technologies, Increasingly Tech-Savvy Consumers and New Applications created a flourish of "Consumer Producers" who Distributed their Own Programming and Demanded Participation in the Creative Process and Experience of Entertainment Media. Consumers Could "Cast" Shows Digitally from a Set of Actors and See How the Program would Unfold Based on their Choices (a Ia "Eat the Runt"). They could submit a Plot Twist or Character Sketch which would be enacted by On-Screen Talent in Real-Time. The Concepts of "Live" Programming and Appointment TV (which many feared would be decimated by Advanced STBs) was reborn and given entirely new meaning: Viewers Needed to Be There at a Given Time in Order to Contribute Lines of Dialogue and Watch its Impact on the Programming. Consumers began to "voice-over" VOD tv programs to create humorous "pop-up video" style commentary clips, sometimes editing-in their own footage (dialogue, characters, etc. ). This created multiple tv "properties" to evergreen the original tv script and generated additional and more valuable viral marcom opportunities as Consumers circulated "their media" to friends. Virtual Stores Built Around Television Programming "Brands" (a Ia "Sex & the City") were Developed. These became Ancillary Programming of their Own, Digitally Populated by the TV Program Characters who "marketed" products within the virtual space via their comments and reactions. Such Marketing Approaches, tightly integrated into the content, became the more sophisticated approach to stimulating brand awareness and transactions.
Convergent Programming also became mobile.... "TV Programming" was not something exclusive to the "TV" - the PC became a TV, the Mobile Phone became a "TV," the ATM, the Watch, etc. became "TVs" in the sense that video/audio/text data was available anytime/anywhere in as high a resolution and as rapidly as it once was on the TV....the Appliance itself became secondary....it was really a matter of what one wanted to do and where one was (much in the way the concept of "phone" morphed across Land-Line Phone, Cell Phone, Speaker Phone, Conference Phone, VideoPhone, CarPhone, etc.). "TV" became the idea of watching, interacting with, and/or creating/distributing video/audio/data content in real-time across many types of hardware - those, by the way, increasingly anthropomorphically designed to reflect and define the person using them! (Pink Cell Phones, A Video Watch Ruggedly Designed with XYZ Features for the "Road Warrior," etc.) The "Old TV" became a "Big Screen Box" through which one could conduct banking, grocery shop, video-conference with friends, play games (sometimes against remotely networked adversaries), and of course just watch "plain old-fashioned tv" shows of the 20" Century...but then again, there were a whole bunch of other boxes, watches, terminals, etc. from which many of these same activities (or some aspects of them) could be done just as easily and enjoyably .perhaps more conveniently.
In 2006, "Tele-vision" no longer meant "The Box" but the TV Experience of Content itself!
Covered Bridges
Strategic Alliance between Interpublic Group and Liberty Livewire Corp.
The Strategic Visioning Process
"Future of Television" Scenarios
"The Future of Television" Presentation
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